The Stability of China
Talk of a 2010 recovery is absolute rubbish.
Follow the above link to an article from today's Australian that correctly identifies the real risks facing the global economy and geo-political order. As we have stated here several times before; the current Chinese political compact between the government and its people is unsustainable and will unravel quickly in the face of economic recession. The resulting political discord is likely to lead to one of two outcomes both of which are equally unpalatable. Either China breaks as a coherent political entity or the Chinese Communist party will be required to conduct vicious and broadspread totalitarian suppression of its populace. The only way this could be successfully achieved in my opinion is with the unwaivering support of the People's Liberation Army.
The sort of support that you only get in a time of war.
Follow the above link to an article from today's Australian that correctly identifies the real risks facing the global economy and geo-political order. As we have stated here several times before; the current Chinese political compact between the government and its people is unsustainable and will unravel quickly in the face of economic recession. The resulting political discord is likely to lead to one of two outcomes both of which are equally unpalatable. Either China breaks as a coherent political entity or the Chinese Communist party will be required to conduct vicious and broadspread totalitarian suppression of its populace. The only way this could be successfully achieved in my opinion is with the unwaivering support of the People's Liberation Army.
The sort of support that you only get in a time of war.
posted by Peter at 10:40 am
1 Comments:
Mt Kohler does have some wonderfully spot on moments. from today's Business Spectator:
Global recession is now locked in: governments and central banks are working to prevent something worse – a Depression, with 25 per cent unemployment – that would be caused by another phase in the feedback loop between the collapsing banking system and the real economy that dominated 2008.
That could be caused by two things: a dramatic worsening of the business and sharemarket landscape because of falling consumer spending and asset values, or problems with the credit-worthiness of governments.
It is the last point that should catch you eye. Read US dollar. Read bond implosion. Read massive interest rate spike. Read depression.
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