Mixed Messages
http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/shorting-opportunity-2.html
A well written article from Mr Nystrom.
The apparent schism between markets and underlying economic information continues unabated. It is not just confined to the United States, the Australian market is also pushing the ASX into new heights. However, these are VERY different economies. The US economy, as far as I can see is supported by its only significant export ....the US dollar. It has currently started to slide again. I still believe very strongly that a siginicant fall in the US dollar accompanied by higher US driven interest rates will precipitate a global recession through massive asset price deflation. But....when this will happen is still unclear to me, and more likely than not will be induced by other factors or a set of adverse circumstances.
The US trade deficit is now just shy of $70b/month. All I can say is the foundation for this occuring is present and the supporting factors have been intensifying over the last two years.
A well written article from Mr Nystrom.
The apparent schism between markets and underlying economic information continues unabated. It is not just confined to the United States, the Australian market is also pushing the ASX into new heights. However, these are VERY different economies. The US economy, as far as I can see is supported by its only significant export ....the US dollar. It has currently started to slide again. I still believe very strongly that a siginicant fall in the US dollar accompanied by higher US driven interest rates will precipitate a global recession through massive asset price deflation. But....when this will happen is still unclear to me, and more likely than not will be induced by other factors or a set of adverse circumstances.
The US trade deficit is now just shy of $70b/month. All I can say is the foundation for this occuring is present and the supporting factors have been intensifying over the last two years.
posted by Peter at 11:56 am
1 Comments:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061110/economy_china_zhou.html?.v=2
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-11-10T191812Z_01_N10276942_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-CHINA-CURRENCIES.xml&from=business
Watch this space....it is located precisely between a rock and a very hard place. In it you will find the primarly cause of the world's prevailing economic imbalances. While the value of the US dollar is sustained this charade will most likely continue. When it finally starts to head south in a series fashion...turn off the fans.
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