Oil
From Stephen Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050815-mon.html#anchor0
I haven't commented much on oil, and as for Peak Oil, I really have no idea if we are there or not. However, as to whether an oil price shock would be a likely precursor to the sort of economic correction that Steve Roach predicts, yes I think this is quite likely.
As for whether we are at Peak Oil? I don't even like to think about it. That is too bearish even for me! If we are at Peak Oil now, before the asset bubbles and debt binges correct themselves then the outcome will be nothing short of catastrophic.
So, if you tell me this is Peak Oil I will put my fingers in my ears and sing lalalala loudly to myself and think about investing in Californian real estate or Internet stocks.
Courtesy of a full-blown energy shock, the venting of global imbalances can
no longer be deferred indefinitely.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050815-mon.html#anchor0
I haven't commented much on oil, and as for Peak Oil, I really have no idea if we are there or not. However, as to whether an oil price shock would be a likely precursor to the sort of economic correction that Steve Roach predicts, yes I think this is quite likely.
As for whether we are at Peak Oil? I don't even like to think about it. That is too bearish even for me! If we are at Peak Oil now, before the asset bubbles and debt binges correct themselves then the outcome will be nothing short of catastrophic.
So, if you tell me this is Peak Oil I will put my fingers in my ears and sing lalalala loudly to myself and think about investing in Californian real estate or Internet stocks.
posted by Peter at 2:50 pm
3 comments
