29th October 2004
An anniversary.
75 years ago the long boom of the roaring 20's came to a rapid conclusion. Black Thursday was followed by Black Tuesday and together 60% of the value of the stock market was wiped out. If you held a basket of stocks at the beginning of October 1929 it would have taken 25 years for their value to be returned (1954 - assuming the stocks were not bankrupted).
In the 1920's there was radio and Radio Corporation of America. Today there is the Internet and Google.
The fundamentals of the US economy are clearly unsound. Sentiment is therefore the only thing left supporting the US stockmarket. The signs are ominous for an impending adjustment and the technical analysis I have seen suggests sooner, not later.
The US dollar is showing substantial weakness. The DJIA declined 1% on Friday. This morning gold looks like it may be commencing a breakout run.
This week, next month, next year. Who can know exactly until it happens. But whatever, the week it starts, our Kondratieff winter of discontent is set to return.
75 years ago the long boom of the roaring 20's came to a rapid conclusion. Black Thursday was followed by Black Tuesday and together 60% of the value of the stock market was wiped out. If you held a basket of stocks at the beginning of October 1929 it would have taken 25 years for their value to be returned (1954 - assuming the stocks were not bankrupted).
In the 1920's there was radio and Radio Corporation of America. Today there is the Internet and Google.
The fundamentals of the US economy are clearly unsound. Sentiment is therefore the only thing left supporting the US stockmarket. The signs are ominous for an impending adjustment and the technical analysis I have seen suggests sooner, not later.
The US dollar is showing substantial weakness. The DJIA declined 1% on Friday. This morning gold looks like it may be commencing a breakout run.
This week, next month, next year. Who can know exactly until it happens. But whatever, the week it starts, our Kondratieff winter of discontent is set to return.
posted by Peter at 10:37 am
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